Run in and second half of the season.

[Tewksbury]

I made a thing showing the second half of the season for the bottom 10 teams.

We're 7 points from 15th with 15 games left. It shows that any one of these teams is catchable, especially the ones who have played a lot of lower teams.

W-green, D-orange L-red, with a load of random stats underneath.

[OptimisticOwl]

If Blackburn don't take points off us, I can't see them getting more than 3/4 points from their last 9 games.

[Tank_Owl2,0]

But they got a new striker from the US so they’ll be ok, oh wait 

[Tewksbury]

Just a quick one.

Wednesday are the only team in the bottom 7 to get a win outside the bottom 10, so these 6 pointers will probably decide who goes down. It also shows how important the Huddersfield game could be in the end.

 

 

[Tewksbury]

Post matchweek 31.

 

[HoylandOwl]

Thanks for this Tewks. 
 

[TheExile]

We’re just about to enter that part of the season when teams at the bottom put the odd shock performance in, teams at the top wobble and some of those in between stick the flip flops on. We really need Sunderland to have their fate sealed by the time we go up there 

[Andyben]

we've pissed it

[Tewksbury]

Tried putting up this week, noticed a mistake.

Edited February 15, 2024 by Tewksbury

[Tewksbury]

Week 32.

Still in our hands as most points at the bottom have been against each other.

 

[Tewksbury]

Looking better for us.

Would finish above Millwall and Huddersfield on PPG, but when looking at the PPG vs league position, there are 6 teams below us, with teams like Stoke and Blackburn running out of 'winnable' games. Swansea look to be falling back but have played almost the entire top half twice.

Games in hand to be played Tuesday (in yellow) could easily see no points added for the 4 teams.

Edited February 17, 2024 by Tewksbury

[Beaconowl]

I love these tables 

[Andyben]

This is great.

It also proves/shows why one team 'always has a run' at the end for promotion or relegation

[Tewksbury]

Here's the run in with the colours for top 4 (red), playoff 6 (orange), middle 6 (yellow), bottom 8 (green).

Most teams have a small run of games to pick up points, but teams like Stoke and Blackburn could be in real trouble over the next few games.

There are also a few runs where teams will get no points in 4-5 games,while Wednesday have a steady run all the way in with no 3-4 'hard' game streaks.

[Laceups]

Mathematically impossible to get automatic now 😡

[Owling_Wolf]

3 hours ago, Laceups said:

Mathematically impossible to get automatic now 😡

Damn!  We've blown it.  🫤

[bradowl]

10 hours ago, Laceups said:

Mathematically impossible to get automatic now 😡

Gutted, still on for play offs though. 😄

[Reesh]

On 17/02/2024 at 20:14, Tewksbury said:

Looking better for us.

Would finish above Millwall and Huddersfield on PPG, but when looking at the PPG vs league position, there are 6 teams below us, with teams like Stoke and Blackburn running out of 'winnable' games. Swansea look to be falling back but have played almost the entire top half twice.

Games in hand to be played Tuesday (in yellow) could easily see no points added for the 4 teams.

Good stuff this fella.

 

 

[Tewksbury]

After the catchup games.

 

[Reesh]

https://www.thefishy.co.uk/football-calculator.php

[Tewksbury]

Gameweek 34.

Still looking good, despite the other results.

[TheExile]

That Millwall result shows how mad it gets in the late winter/spring 

[HappyOwl]

It’s a mad league to think that Watford in 11th have only won 2 more games than us but drawn 6 more 😳😳😳

[Reesh]

11 minutes ago, HappyOwl said:

It’s a mad league to think that Watford in 11th have only won 2 more games than us but drawn 6 more 😳😳😳

If we hadn't been so weak minded early doors, changing just 4 of those 20 defeats to draws and we would be out of the bottom 3.

 

The Munoz experiment was so so bad.

[KrolMong]

Preston at home, Middlesbrough at home and Huddersfield at home, under Rohl, would have likely been wins.

[Reesh]

 

 

 

If we maintain that form we should be fine

 

[Reesh]

Edited February 26, 2024 by Reesh

[Beaconowl]

That doesn’t look so promising 

[Reesh]

1 hour ago, Beaconowl said:

That doesn’t look so promising 

dunno, a lot of games between the clubs in the mix, if we win half the home games and 1 away min, plus 3 draws we have a good chance IMHO.

[Beaconowl]

The good news (I think) is that at least we have a shout of survival now. Two months ago I didnt think we stood a chance.

[Tewksbury]

If we can keep pace or make up a couple of points on some of the 36-39 point sides till after Ipswich, we should be OK. We have a good run in with Blackburn and Stoke late on, Sunderland should be on the beach by the last game.

Blackburn have a terrible run in after the next couple, QPR have 4 hard games at the end.

Don't lose the 6 pointers and we're fine.

 

[Paul from Wisewood]

Whatever happens, come what May.. the turnaround from that Spanish prick is ridiculous 

[Andyben]

Good old DC and his investment in January eh @Paul from Wisewood

[pachyderm]

On 09/02/2024 at 17:38, Tank_Owl2,0 said:

But they got a new striker from the US so they’ll be ok, oh wait 

hmmp

 

Who did they get..?

 

I've no idea on the contract we have with Ugbo but It would be nice to have him around for a while... 

Edited March 3, 2024 by pachyderm

[Reesh]

2 hours ago, pachyderm said:

hmmp

 

Who did they get..?

 

I've no idea on the contract we have with Ugbo but It would be nice to have him around for a while... 

Oh fuck right off

[Tewksbury]

Gameweek 35

[Tewksbury]

Gameweek 36

 

[Tewksbury]

Week 37 done.

Everyone on 37 games now, all games in hand played.

Still on course for safety, with Rotherham, Blackburn, Huddersfield and Birmingham for the drop based on PPG and adjusted by opponent.

May get a bit dicey in the next week or so, but then we have a good run to the end of the season. Blackburn look fucked and destined for 23rd with the worst remaining fixtures and not looking like getting a win from anywhere, so it will be a fight for 22nd between a few teams up to the last couple of games.

[TheExile]

We’re in such a good position now. All season has been about having to better teams results and then some. We’ve had to do it two or three times with winning runs which looked a pipe dream when Rohl first came in and even then each run never got us level until the last one. It’s that mentality that gives me the most hope as we could’ve given up a few times so it would be odd to crumble now. What have we got to lose? Others have a different and more perilous mindset as they never saw the threat coming. We now simply need to get the of better two of about 6/7 teams over the next 9.

We don’t seem to draw many but even if we made sure we didn’t lose games such as Ipswich at the weekend, then a couple of home wins thrown in the mix and we start to get a clear picture of the finish line.

What could possibly go wrong?! 😮‍💨

Edited March 13, 2024 by TheExile

[Andyben]

23 minutes ago, TheExile said:

We’re in such a good position now. All season has been about having to better teams results and then some. We’ve had to do it two or three times with winning runs which looked a pipe dream when Rohl first came in and even then each run never got us level until the last one. It’s that mentality that gives me the most hope as we could’ve given up a few times so it would be odd to crumble now. What have we got to lose? Others have a different and more perilous mindset as they never saw the threat coming. We now simply need to get the of better two of about 6/7 teams over the next 9.

We don’t seem to draw many but even if we made sure we didn’t lose games such as Ipswich at the weekend, then a couple of home wins thrown in the mix and we start to get a clear picture of the finish line.

What could possibly go wrong?! 😮‍💨

Exactly.

We're capable of getting 9/12, or 12/15 in little bursts that will see us quite comfortable by end of Easter

[Tewksbury]

The difference is that outside the top few teams (Cov are one of these with the 3rd best ppg v bottom teams)we can compete with every other team in the league.

None of our wins in the second half of the season have been against the run of play, they've all been well deserved, with xG etc. backing it up.

The only 2 defeats outside the top 6 have been Cardiff and Huddersfield. Both essentially smash and grabs, if we'd have scored first v Huddersfield it would have ended 4-0 to us, it was that type of game. I'd say both of those were very winnable and if Rohl has sorted out the mentality issues, then they shouldn't be repeated.

[Owling_Wolf]

Potentially tough / dodgy games for us are WBA & Norwich.  Both at home, both in playoff positions and Norwich in particular surprised me a couple of weeks ago (?) when I was looking at form. Could be crucial games for us. 

[Tewksbury]

Week 38.

Despite the loss, we're still doing well on PPG and sitting better on the adjusted as we were expected to lose anyway.

All in all, not a bad couple of games, still in the mix with an arguable easier run in than our rivals.

Blackburn, Birmingham and Huddersfield looking really shaky, with a couple of others not out of it yet.

 

[Tewksbury]

Week 39.

Disappointing draw at the end, but gained a point on most of the bottom teams. Swansea were W3D1L1 going into today, so a point is OK in the grand scheme of things.

Keep grinding them out and we'll be reight.

Huddersfield, Birmingham, Blackburn and Plymouth all looking vulnerable, can't see any of them picking up many points going forward.

[Tylluan]

As many have said, the home game set up doesn't work away. But with the opposition we have left to play we may need to set up more pragmatic at home as well. We need to provisionally set up for the draw first against QPR and Norwich. Then see where we sit and what we have to do against Stoke. Playing Blackburn on Sunday now becomes a godsend as well can set up dependent on the previous day's results. 

Rohl and his team now have to look at what's around them and not just the opposition in front. There's only Plymouth with the proverbial easy game this weekend. There's a 6 pointer at Huddersfield and Birmingham are at Leicester. 

And we need to take this approach on every game day. Plymouth still have to play QPR Leicester and Millwall who could still be flirting with the drop. Birmingham still have Coventry Huddersfield and playoff chasing Norwich on the last day. Huddersfield still have to go to Bristol City and are away at Ipswich on the last day. 

We have to look for points in all of our next four games. I don't care if that means playing the most boring football in the world. I don't want to be entertained. I want to be in the championship next season 

Edited April 2, 2024 by Tylluan

[Tank_Owl2,0]

You’ve described it better than me but that’s exactly my thinking at the minute. I don’t know if DR will be that pragmatic, unless the likes of Chris Powell will be saying this.

Let’s hope Ipswich are still in the running for the top 2 or champions by the last game, we don’t need them to be resting players etc.

[MAL]

2nd March we had the capability of reaching 68 points, which was 5th in the table.

2nd April we can only reach 57 points, enough for 11th...

Can we have a squeaky bum emoji?

 

 

 

[mkowl]

The scary stat is we have scored 31 goals only 

In 21 games we have failed to find the net 

I mean repeating that would give 3 games where our XG is Nil. 

We are trying to buck more trends than a trendy bucky thing

[Tewksbury]

Gameweek 41.

We're all Swansea Aren't We?

[TheExile]

Looks like for the most part the teams around us play teams getting the flip flops out. Huddersfield v Ipswich on last day could be a good one if we can get something from wba and Norwich