M42Owl

Been to St Mary’s twice for league games. Can’t believe it’s over 10 years ago, so I checked. Last one was 11 years ago.

Stockdale: well dodgy but got away with it. One good save. James: Very good. McG: some wayward passes when going forward, but excellent defensively. Iorfa: best game for years. Ok, poor opposition, but didn't put a foot wrong. Saved Stockdale and back with those surging runs. Hunt: Very good. Mighten: best he's played for us. Better 2nd half. Vaukes: did Bannan's job very well. Bakinson: some lazy passes around halfway, again. But excellent when in their half. Wilks: disappointing. Didn't build on his good game on Saturday. Lost possession too easily. Windass: good goal, busy, but came too deep too often leaving Smith isolated. Smith: missed an early sitter, but otherwise did well. Set up a great chance for James to miss MotM: Iorfa.

First half anonymous. Second half only noticeable due to a few boos. Did very little. Much like most of their team (except their no. 15 looked decent). Wouldn't get on the bench for us.

On the Official site. Tickets: Buy tickets: home tickets.

It seems that I might be attending this game so I had a look on the OS. Looks like kop is not open. Tickets elsewhere £10/£5.

True, but didn’t the council own 50% (forget who owned the rest) and didn’t their agreement to sell the ground to wasps cancel the rental agreement that ccfc had? Thus leading to wasps putting the rent up and a move to cheaper Northampton? I think ccfc got themselves a lousy deal when they left Highfield Rd (their fault as much as anyones) but the ground sale undermined the only good part of that deal. I agree that ccfc won’t have the means to buy the ground, hence the chance for some opportunist to come in and, potential, screw the football club again. That said, the hotel, casino and conference facilities on their own must make a good return if picked up cheaply from the administrator.

Can’t say I’m well informed on the goings on at wasps, but aren’t they a bunch of chancers that needed a new/bigger ground to compete in the professional game and saw an opportunity to get a big ground on the cheap in Coventry so upped sticks and left their fans in London behind? But the bills are now due… I hope now they’ve been rescued (without the ground) they move back to their roots and CCFC have a chance to buy the ground back. I suspect though that some opportunist will buy the ground hoping to screw the football club for rent. There was talk a year or two ago of CC getting a new ground on the other side of the city near where Coventry rugby club play(ed). Perhaps that idea will be resurrected.

Wilf Smith

First half we were poor, summed up by our free kick on half way 30 secs before the break. Rather than launch it forward, we fancied around at the back and almost gifted them a goal. Second half a lot better. At both ends until we got the fourth. Winnall’s goal galvanised us into taking it seriously again, but the penalty miss buoyed them and we resorted to the panicky Wednesday of old. Another fairly comfortable win, with plenty of goals and near misses, that didn’t quite satisfy. Paterson had a good game, and Iorfa, although he might have done better with their first goal. Smith’s control and hold up was better than of late. As someone posted above, lots of 6s and 7s. No one outstanding, but no ‘mares either.

and Rory McArdle.

John-Jules

No. For example: my defence might concede one and lose, and each of my six forwards might score, but also lose. So I win 6-1 but have nothing going through to the next round. Maybe in the scenario above, as I’ve won on the day (or just done better than my opponent in the round), any defence / player knocked out could be substituted for someone still in? But as division three teams get knocked out, players remaining have limited choice of who to substitute in. Our final should be at round 5 stage - will there be any div 3 teams left? Need a way to resolve draws as well.

I wouldn't mind JB at wing back but I'm haunted by his defensive displays early last season (Harrogate?).

Where's Brown going to play? Hopefully not at the back. Wherever it is, hope he has a decent game.

It would have been Chansiri's had it been the first game under his tenure. Having thought about it more, that would mean a second tier game so can't be right. The 6-2 game doesn't seem so far in the past to be MM's first game, but I guess it was.

Games like this, as Lincoln away, are games we need to win to take pressure off when we play top six teams. A six point gap to top two puts us in the group of play-off also rans. Three points a must for ongoing morale. Start on the front foot, stay on the front foot, and put the chances away this time. Was it Chansiri's first game or Mandaric's where we beat BR 6-2? A repeat would be good.

I'm in favour.

Just doing a catch up after returning from my hols spending time away from the internet and spotted a couple of errors. Fortunately points aren’t affected, but come the end of the season, GD and GS might be important! Oct 1st: I’m down for a 4-2 win, but Derby (my defence) had a clean sheet. I believe that the two goals Derby scored were erroneously recorded as conceded. It did occur to me that their are several of us that have Derby as their defence and the extra two goals conceded might impact their results. So I checked; and found that their scores were correctly recorded as *-0. Oct 8th: A 2-2 result was noted, but the table only added 1-1. Not sure why.

Bakinson for Wilks is understandable. He needs to be on his game: bit lackadaisical at times and caught in possession. Would have liked for Gregory to start.

Did the ref get anything significant wrong? I can’t remember any contentious decisions. There was Wilks being a prat, for which he could have been booked, and their number 3 could’ve had a second yellow (their manager seemed to agree as he was subbed minutes later). Nothing much there for either set of fans to get agitated about. Thinking about it now, there were two incidents that I missed: Paterson’s booking. What went off there? With their player on the floor, I did think Pato was going to be sent off for a mo. A kerfuffle at the opposite end late on. Cross from a free kick over hit and ball goes out for goal kick. Then it kicks off. What did I miss?

If fit enough, I’d play Gregory, even if it means resting him on Saturday. If fit enough, I’d have Byers on the bench. Vaulks has done enough to retain his place. Although there may be a case for strengthening the middle by playing Byers, Vaulks and Bannan, and dropping Windass or Smith to accommodate.

Currently, the top eight have won 38 out of 49 games played against the bottom 16. About 75%. This suggests (doesn’t prove, but suggests) there may well be a gulf in quality between these two groups. When the season gets tough with heavy pitches and two games a week some, if not all, of the top eight will have their squad depth tested. But so will the teams with the smaller squads outside the top 16. If, and stress the if, there is a significant margin between the top 8 and the rest then even a weakened Bolton / Barnsley etc ought to win their games against the lower teams. There’s only precedent and the levelling effect of muddy pitches, to suggest that the current 75% average win rate won’t continue. Even if half the teams fall away that leaves four teams picking up, on average, 24 wins, plus any draws. It’s not a lot further to the 92 point mark: to be made up with results against the “weakened” top eight sides. On the too early to extrapolate point. That always the case, even after, say, 35 games, it’s a bit speculative. But perhaps reassessing after the next seven games (Plymouth plus 6 from the rest - not sure of other teams’ fixtures) it’ll be more meaningful. Can we pick up six wins in a row between Plymouth and Derby? [NB: I’m ruling out wins at neither Plymouth nor Derby.]

Will two points per game be enough to get a top two place at the end of the season? Apologies for the lengthy post. I was jotting down a few thoughts and it turned into an essay. Apologies too for any data/mathematical error that I’m sure someone will spot. Hopefully, any such errors won’t affect the conclusion. Nearly a quarter of the season gone and 5 teams still have 2ppg or more. Can they all keep it up for the season? Looking at the current league table it looks like the top 8 might be starting to break away from the rest. Ok, Accrington are only a point behind Derby in 8th but have played a game more. Accrington, Cambridge, Exeter, Shrewsbury occupy 9th to 12th. You’d expect these teams to fade as squad depth becomes more important. So maybe there is a mini league of 8 that we need to win. The usual view is that you should beat the teams around you: the six pointers, but I often look back at the Burnley team of a few seasons ago. A decent, but not exceptional, team won promotion on the back of beating, home and away, every team in the bottom half (24 wins). Basically, they beat the teams they were expected to beat, no shocks or bad days at the office and that allowed for a few losses in the six pointers. Looking back to last season, it was these types of games, against teams in the bottom half, that cost us promotion: draws at Cheltenham, Wimbledon, etc. So in our mini league of 8, it’s how well we do against the bottom 16 that reduces (or increases) the pressure in the 6 pointers. So how well are we doing against bottom 16 teams? Played 6 won 6. Good start, but it got me to thinking how well are the other teams doing? That led me to produce two different tables: results v bottom 16 and results against top 8. It’s not just Wednesday that are doing well against the bottom teams. There seems to be a gulf between the top 8 and the rest with an average of 2.43 pgg earned. This backs up the argument that the top 8 are a class apart. As you’d expect, the ppg against the top 8 is much lower (both sides can’t win). That said, Plymouth apart, teams are only getting about 1ppg. It’s all pretty even - almost half the games are draws compared to a quarter for the league as a whole. Table versus bottom 16 Team. Played W-D-L-Pts Ply. 5. 3-0-2-6 Ips. 6. 6-0-0-18 Wed. 6. 6-0-0-18 Por. 6. 5-1-0-16 Bar. 7. 5-1-1-16 Bol. 6. 5-1-0-16 Pet. 6. 5-0-1-15 Der. 7. 3-2-2-11 Total. 49. 38-5-6-119 @2.43ppg Table versus top 8 Team. Played W-D-L-Pts Ply. 6. 5-1-0-16 Ips. 5. 1-3-1-6 Wed. 5. 1-2-2-5 Por. 4. 1-2-1-5 Bar. 4. 1-1-2-4 Bol. 4. 1-1-2-4 Pet. 5. 1-0-4-3 Der. 3. 2-0-1-6 Total. 36. 13-10-13-49 @ 1.36ppg (excluding Plymouth it’s 1.1ppg) Note that Plymouth seem to be a bit of an outlier in both tables. Very good against the top sides, but mediocre against the rest, albeit they’ve only played 5 games against lower sides. This seems to adversely impact their season projection. Taking ppg against top 8 and projecting to 14 games, and the ppg v the rest to 32 games gives an end of season table as below: Season Projections based on current ppg. Team. ppg top 8 + ppg bottom 16 = Total points Ips. 16.8. + 96. = 112.8 Wed. 14. +. 96. = 110 Por. 17.5. +. 85.33 = 102.83 Bol. 14. +. 85.33. = 99.33 Pet. 17.5. +. 80. = 97.5 Bar. 14. +. 73.14. = 87.14 Der. 28. +. 50.29. = 78.29 Ply. 37.33 + 38.4. = 75.73 Now I’m not suggesting that Wednesday will finish on 110 points, nor that there will be three teams finishing above 100 points. But what I do think is evident is that there is a significant gap between the top 8 and the rest such that if those top 8 play to their ability, without taking games for granted etc, then they should continue to win the majority of those 32 games. As we saw yesterday, dodgy pitches are a great leveller and as we get into Dec/Jan pitches will only get worse, but this is balanced by the strength of the top 8 squads which can manage the long winter slog much better. So, 92 points, will that to be enough to guarantee automatic promotion? I think not.

Didn’t Tommy Spurr have a long throw, and Ben Marshall? If we’re doing some work on throw ins then we should sort out the short ones in our own half first. No one moves, no options for the thrower. Might as well give the throw to the other side. Been like that for years.

Best team won. Not convincingly but we did enough and worked their keeper more than they worked Stockdale. Defence is an enigma. Look so solid whilst also capable of gifting a goal at any time. Henegan was excellent again. Vaulkes’ performances should get him a start at Plymouth, giving Byers a bit more recovery time. Smith showed how valuable Gregory is to us. And Wilks is still flattering to deceive. I thought Windass had a disappointing game. Front three weren’t very effective: midfield saved them. Plymouth will be more difficult opponents, but I think we’ll up our game against a better side.