That is a really well constructed and interesting look at the season so far.
I can see where you're coming from, but I suspect it's too early in the season to be extrapolating results, as you've already alluded to. I understand (waiting to be proved wrong now) that no-one has failed to achieve automatic promotion from L1 with a points total of 92 before, so I would suggest it's unlikely to happen this season too.
My thoughts are that teams such as Bolton, Pompey, Derby and Plymouth don't have the quality in depth that the likes of us and Ipswich have and will drop unexpected points as a result of injury and fatigue over the course of the season. It'll be interesting to watch though.